LIJiang-yun,DAIWen-jiang,ZHANGXuan-qing,et al.Distributed Hydrological Model Ensemble Simulation Based on Bayesian Model Average Method[J].China Water & Wastewater,2023,39(3):116-122.
Distributed Hydrological Model Ensemble Simulation Based on Bayesian Model Average Method
China Water & Wastewater[ISSN:1000-4062/CN:12-1073/TU]
volume:
第39卷
Number:
第3期
Page:
116-122
Column:
Date of publication:
2023-02-01
- Keywords:
- distributed hydrological model; ensemble simulation; Bayesian model average method; storm water management model (SWMM)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzed the influence of uncertainty of distributed hydrological model based on its research advances. The storm water management model (SWMM) was exemplified to illustrate the method of applying process ensemble to distributed hydrological model to improve the simulation reliability, and two rainfall processes in Longgang District of Shenzhen City were simulated by using this method. When Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) was used to measure the accuracy of simulation results, there were great differences between different runoff yield models. In the rainfall event on August 11, 2018, the NS values were 0.849, 0.834 and 0.855 when Horton model, Green-Ampt model and the ensemble simulation based on Bayesian model average method were adopted, respectively. In the rainfall event on August 15, 2018, the NS values of the above three simulation methods were 0.875, 0.879 and 0.891, respectively. The simulation results of the ensemble model were significantly better than that of the single model, and the former had significantly improved the “degree of fit” compared with the latter.
Last Update:
2023-02-01