ZHUHai-yan,SUGuang-ning,TANZhi-ke,et al.Health Risk and Predictive Model of Disinfection By-products in Drinking Water[J].China Water & Wastewater,2025,41(3):65-71.
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Health Risk and Predictive Model of Disinfection By-products in Drinking Water

China Water & Wastewater[ISSN:1000-4062/CN:12-1073/TU] volume: 第41卷 Number: 第3期 Page: 65-71 Column: Date of publication: 2025-02-01
Author(s):
ZHU　Hai-yan1;  SU　Guang-ning2;  TAN　Zhi-ke1;  HUANG　Di-shun1
（1. Guangzhou Baiyun Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Guangzhou 510445， China； 2. Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Guangzhou 511430， China）
Keywords:
drinking water;  disinfection by-products;  health risk;  disability-adjusted life years
Abstract:
The pollution of 11 disinfection by-products (DBPs), including 9 nitrosamines (NAs), trichloromethane (TCM) and tetrachloromethane (TTCM), in the water supply system with Liuxi River as the water source in Guangzhou was investigated. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out for the health risks of multi-pathway exposure to DBPs and the burden of disease quantified by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). A multiple linear regression (MLR) model for DBPs concentration prediction was established using conventional water quality indicators as the independent variable. Three DBPs, namely N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), N-nitrosodiethylamine (NDEA), and TCM, were mainly detected. The average concentrations of TCM and total nitrosamine were 19.59 g/L and 5.54 ng/L respectively. The median total cancer risk for residents exposed to DBPs was 6.92×10-6, and the median per capita DALYs loss attributed to liver cancer was 1.05×10-6 persons/a, which exceeded the reference limit set by the World Health Organization (WHO) (10-6 persons/a). In the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the per capita DALYs loss of liver cancer in China accounted for 0.03%, and DALYs loss was mainly caused by exposure to drinking water, with the highest risk of individual health loss being among people aged 45-64. The MLR prediction model had the R2 value of 0.817 with DBPs in pipe network water as a function of water quality parameters. To mitigate the risk of DBPs in the water supply system, it is essential to focus on monitoring the wastewater discharged from domestic sources, livestock farms, and leather processing facilities along the Liuxi River.
Last Update: 2025-02-01