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降雨径流模型的参数敏感性分析与方法比较
- Title:
- Parameter Sensitivity Analysis and Method Comparison of Rainfall Runoff Model
- 摘要:
- 参数的识别是决定模型模拟结果质量的主要因素，为了识别SWMM模型中12个主要参数的敏感性强弱，以西安理工大学金花校区为例，采用Morris局部敏感性分析和GULE全局敏感性分析两种方法，对SWMM模型的参数进行不确定性分析。结果表明，采用Morris局部敏感性分析方法，管道糙率与不透水率为高敏感性参数；透水区曼宁糙率、透水区洼蓄量以及Horton入渗方程相关的系数都为不敏感性参数。在GULE全局敏感性分析方法中，不透水率与管道糙率两个参数对模型的敏感性较高，其余参数均具有弱敏感性。Morris局部敏感性分析方法能够定量分析敏感性强弱，GULE全局敏感性分析方法以统计的方法定性分析可避免“唯一最优”，以上两种方法对SWMM模型的参数识别以及识别方法的选择具有参考意义。
- Abstract:
- Parameter identification is the main factor that determines the quality of the simulation results. In order to identify the sensitivity of 12 main parameters in storm water management model (SWMM) in Jinhua campus of Xi’an University of Technology, the uncertainty of parameters in SWMM was classified by Morris local sensitivity analysis method and GULE global sensitivity analysis method. The results of Morris local sensitivity analysis indicated that Con-Mann and Imperv were high sensitive parameters, while N-perv, Dstore-perv and coefficients related to Horton infiltration equation were all insensitivity parameters. The results of GULE global sensitivity analysis indicated that two parameters (Imperv and Con-Mann) had higher sensitivity to the model, and the other parameters had weak sensitivity. Morris local sensitivity analysis method can quantitatively analyze the sensitivity, while GULE global sensitivity analysis method can avoid the “only optimal” by statistical qualitative analysis. The above two methods have reference significance for parameter identification of SWMM and selection of identification methods.
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