ZHUHai-yan,SUGuang-ning,TANZhi-ke,et al.Health Risk and Predictive Model of Disinfection By-products in Drinking Water[J].China Water & Wastewater,2025,41(3):65-71.
饮用水中消毒副产物健康风险及预测模型
- Title:
- Health Risk and Predictive Model of Disinfection By-products in Drinking Water
- 摘要:
- 对以广州市流溪河为水源的供水系统中9种亚硝胺（NAs）以及三氯甲烷（TCM）和四氯化碳（TTCM）共11种消毒副产物（DBPs）进行污染调查，对多途径暴露于DBPs的健康风险及以伤残调整生命年（DALYs）为量化指标的疾病负担进行蒙特卡洛模拟，以常规水质指标为自变量建立DBPs浓度的多元线性回归（MLR）预测模型。结果表明，主要检出N-亚硝基二甲胺（NDMA）、N-亚硝基二乙胺（NDEA）和TCM三种DBPs，TCM和总亚硝胺浓度均值分别为19.59 ?g/L、5.54 ng/L。居民暴露于DBPs的总致癌风险中值为6.92×10-6，所致肝癌人均DALYs损失中值为1.05×10-6 人/a，高于世界卫生组织（WHO）参考限值（10-6 人/a），占2019年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究中我国肝癌人均DALYs损失的0.03%，DALYs损失主要由饮水暴露产生，45~64岁人群个体健康损失风险最高。MLR预测模型显示，以管网水中DBPs作为水质参数的函数，R2值为0.817。为降低供水系统中的DBPs风险，需重点监管流溪河沿岸生活源、养殖场及皮革加工等排废现象。
- Abstract:
- The pollution of 11 disinfection by-products (DBPs), including 9 nitrosamines (NAs), trichloromethane (TCM) and tetrachloromethane (TTCM), in the water supply system with Liuxi River as the water source in Guangzhou was investigated. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out for the health risks of multi-pathway exposure to DBPs and the burden of disease quantified by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). A multiple linear regression (MLR) model for DBPs concentration prediction was established using conventional water quality indicators as the independent variable. Three DBPs, namely N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), N-nitrosodiethylamine (NDEA), and TCM, were mainly detected. The average concentrations of TCM and total nitrosamine were 19.59 g/L and 5.54 ng/L respectively. The median total cancer risk for residents exposed to DBPs was 6.92×10-6, and the median per capita DALYs loss attributed to liver cancer was 1.05×10-6 persons/a, which exceeded the reference limit set by the World Health Organization (WHO) (10-6 persons/a). In the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the per capita DALYs loss of liver cancer in China accounted for 0.03%, and DALYs loss was mainly caused by exposure to drinking water, with the highest risk of individual health loss being among people aged 45-64. The MLR prediction model had the R2 value of 0.817 with DBPs in pipe network water as a function of water quality parameters. To mitigate the risk of DBPs in the water supply system, it is essential to focus on monitoring the wastewater discharged from domestic sources, livestock farms, and leather processing facilities along the Liuxi River.
相似文献/References:
[1]张晓,高圣华,金敏,等.饮用水中病毒的富集和检测技术概述[J].中国给水排水,2020,36(8):50.
[2]陈诗琦,刘成,沈海军,等.水厂失效生物活性炭的更换策略探讨[J].中国给水排水,2020,36(17):49.
CHEN Shi-qi,LIU Cheng,SHEN Hai-jun,et al.Discussion on Replacement Strategy of Invalidated Biological Activated Carbon in Drinking Water Plants[J].China Water & Wastewater,2020,36(3):49.
[3]郭庆园,王春苗,于建伟,等.饮用水中典型嗅味问题及其研究进展[J].中国给水排水,2020,36(22):82.
GUO Qing-yuan,WANG Chun-miao,YU Jian-wei,et al.Research Progress on Typical Taste and Odor Problems in Drinking Water[J].China Water & Wastewater,2020,36(3):82.
[4]严心涛,吴云良,查巧珍,等.流式细胞术在饮用水微生物检测中的应用及挑战[J].中国给水排水,2020,36(22):89.
YAN Xin-tao,WU Yun-liang,ZHA Qiao-zhen,et al.Applications and Challenges of Microbial Detection in Drinking Water by Flow Cytometry[J].China Water & Wastewater,2020,36(3):89.
[5]周子翀,杨旭,肖融,等.应对高藻原水的水厂多点加氯技术原理与应用[J].中国给水排水,2021,37(12):109.
ZHOU Zi-chong,YANG Xu,XIAO Rong,et al.Technical Principle and Application of Multi-point Chlorination in High Algae Water Treatment[J].China Water & Wastewater,2021,37(3):109.
[6]高雪,杨唯艺,雷培树.饮用水紫外线组合消毒技术发展现状[J].中国给水排水,2021,37(18):52.
GAO Xue,YANG Wei-yi,LEI Pei-shu.Development Status of the Combined Ultraviolet Disinfection Technology in Drinking Water[J].China Water & Wastewater,2021,37(3):52.
[7]杨晶博,王蔚蔚,刘丹,等.上海市饮用水安全保障技术标准体系研究[J].中国给水排水,2021,37(22):118.
YANG Jing-bo,WANG Wei-wei,LIU Dan,et al.Research on Technical Standard System of Drinking Water Security in Shanghai[J].China Water & Wastewater,2021,37(3):118.
[8]刘云帆,黎艳,崔迪,等.中美饮用水安全保障技术团体标准对比研究[J].中国给水排水,2021,37(22):133.
LIU Yun-fan,LI Yan,CUI Di,et al.Comparative Study of Group Standards for Drinking Water Security Technology between China and the United States[J].China Water & Wastewater,2021,37(3):133.
[9]寸黎辉,李碧莹,尹玉忠,等.石墨炉原子吸收光谱法监测水体中铊分析条件优化[J].中国给水排水,2021,37(24):124.
CUN Li-hui,LI Bi-ying,YIN Yu-zhong,et al.Optimization of Analysis Condition for Monitoring Thallium in Water by Graphite Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectrometry[J].China Water & Wastewater,2021,37(3):124.
[10]赵珍仪,高峰,郑军朝.基于可直饮目标的城市二次供水改造经验探讨[J].中国给水排水,2022,38(1):129.
ZHAO Zhen-yi,GAO Feng,ZHENG Jun-zhao.Discussion on Urban Secondary Water Supply Reconstruction Experience Based on the Goal of Fine Drinking Water[J].China Water & Wastewater,2022,38(3):129.
[11]段钰汀,于水利,肖倩.高级还原技术去除有机消毒副产物的研究进展[J].中国给水排水,2022,38(6):38.
DUANYu-ting,YUShui-li,XIAOQian.Research Progress on Advanced Reduction Processes for Degradation of Organic Disinfection By-products[J].China Water & Wastewater,2022,38(3):38.
[12]陶辉,陈怿扬,蒋福春,等.纳滤对饮用水消毒副产物前体物的去除性能[J].中国给水排水,2023,39(17):38.
TAOHui,CHENYi-yang,JIANGFu-chun,et al.Rejection of Disinfection By-products Precursors by Nanofiltration in Drinking Water Treatment[J].China Water & Wastewater,2023,39(3):38.
[13]董捷,白力宏,张建柱,等.预氯化工艺对有机磷酸酯的去除效果[J].中国给水排水,2024,40(15):50.
DONGJie,BAILi-hong,ZHANGJian-zhu,et al.Efficacy of Prechlorination in Removing Organophosphates[J].China Water & Wastewater,2024,40(3):50.