BAIYu,CHENLei,SHAOZhi-yu,et al.Optimal Scheduling of River and Lake Reservoir Groups Based on Model Predictive Control[J].China Water & Wastewater,2025,41(15):156-162.
基于模型预测控制的河湖库群优化调度
- Title:
- Optimal Scheduling of River and Lake Reservoir Groups Based on Model Predictive Control
- 关键词:
- 河湖库群; 优化调度; 模型预测控制; 雨洪管理模型（SWMM）; 遗传算法
- Keywords:
- river and lake reservoir groups; optimal scheduling; model predictive control; storm water management model (SWMM); genetic algorithm
- 摘要:
- 实时优化调度在基于河网和湖库群的城市排水系统安全管理中具有至关重要的作用，但现有研究忽略了动态变化环境下河网和湖库群优化调度对整个系统河道泛洪风险的影响。为此，采用模型预测控制与雨洪管理模型（SWMM）耦合的策略，构建了一个旨在最小化河道总泛洪量的河网和湖库群实时优化调度方法。以重庆市某片区为例，对比了4种城市开发水平场景下的河道泛洪风险，涵盖5种不同重现期降雨场景。结果表明，上游建设湖库和优化调度均是减轻河道泛洪风险的重要手段。相比上游未建设湖库的场景1和场景2，上游建设湖库的场景3和场景4的河道总泛洪量显著降低，场景3相比场景1降低了73.48%~100%、场景4相比场景2降低了65.70%~100%。上游建设湖库后，优化调度可进一步降低河道总泛洪量，场景3相比场景1降低了18.64%~100%、场景4相比场景2降低了18.45%~100%。
- Abstract:
- Real-time optimal scheduling plays a critical role in the safety management of urban drainage system that integrates river networks with lake reservoir groups. However, previous studies have largely neglected the potential risk of river flooding caused by the coordinated operation of these components under dynamically changing environmental conditions. To address this issue, a strategy combining model predictive control with storm water management model (SWMM) was developed to establish a real?time optimal scheduling method for river networks and lake reservoir groups, with the objective of minimizing total flood discharge in the river. This study compared the risks of river flooding in a specific area in Chongqing under four different levels of urban development, across five rainfall scenarios with varying return periods. The construction of lake reservoirs upstream, along with the optimal scheduling strategy, were both effective measures for mitigating the risk of river flooding. Compared to scenario 1 and scenario 2, where no such infrastructure was developed upstream, the total flood discharge in rivers under scenario 3 and scenario 4—where lake reservoirs were constructed upstream—was significantly reduced. Specifically, the total flood discharge in scenario 3 decreased by 73.48% to 100% compared to scenario 1, and in scenario 4, it decreased by 65.70% to 100% compared to scenario 2. Following the construction of lake reservoirs upstream, optimal scheduling strategy could further reduce the total flood discharge in the river. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 3 demonstrated a reduction ranging from 18.64% to 100%. Similarly, compared to scenario 2, scenario 4 showed a reduction ranging from 18.45% to 100%.
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