RENDe-fu,LIYong-kun,ZHANGShu-han,et al.Rainfall Waterlogging Warning Threshold in Lower Concave Bridge Area Based on Statistical Rainfall Pattern[J].China Water & Wastewater,2025,41(21):155-161.
基于统计雨型的下凹桥区降雨量内涝预警阈值研究
- Title:
- Rainfall Waterlogging Warning Threshold in Lower Concave Bridge Area Based on Statistical Rainfall Pattern
- 关键词:
- 城市内涝; 下凹桥区; 降雨预警; K-means聚类分析; 统计雨型
- Keywords:
- urban waterlogging; lower concave bridge area; rainfall warning; K-means clustering analysis; statistical rainfall pattern
- 摘要:
- 鉴于当前城市缺乏从易涝微观区域和统计雨型的角度确定暴雨致涝降雨量阈值的研究，为提升内涝预警的精确度，采用K-means聚类法对北京市某下凹桥区的降雨数据进行分析，识别出更能反映区域实际降雨特征的统计雨型，并借助北京市下凹桥区内涝判定预警指标，将统计雨型与传统芝加哥雨型作为设计降雨输入，通过InfoWorks ICM软件模拟得出致涝降雨量阈值。结果表明，两种雨型对致涝降雨量阈值的影响不大，而雨峰位置系数对致涝降雨量阈值的影响较为显著，且雨峰位置越靠后，下凹桥区各预警等级对降雨量阈值的敏感度越高，对排水系统造成更大的压力。这种基于统计雨型的致涝降雨量阈值精细化确定方法，可为当前城市应对短时强降雨引发的积水防治和预警工作提供有力的技术支持。
- Abstract:
- Currently, there is insufficient research on establishing rainfall thresholds for rainstorm in urban areas, particularly from the perspectives of waterlogging-prone micro-regions and statistical rainfall pattern. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of urban waterlogging early warning systems. The K-means clustering method was employed to analyze rainfall data collected from a lower concave bridge area in Beijing, enabling the identification of a statistical rainfall pattern that more accurately reflected the region’s actual rainfall characteristics. Subsequently, using the waterlogging determination and early warning index of the area, both the identified statistical rainfall pattern and the conventional Chicago rainfall pattern were applied as design rainfall inputs. A comparative simulation of the thresholds for waterlogging-inducing rainfall was then conducted using InfoWorks ICM software. The two rainfall patterns exerted minimal influence on the threshold for waterlogging-inducing rainfall, whereas the peak intensity position coefficient had a more pronounced effect. Furthermore, the later the occurrence of the rainfall peak, the higher the sensitivity of each warning level in the lower concave bridge area to the rainfall threshold, thereby placing increased stress on the drainage system. This refined methodology for determining threshold for waterlogging-inducing rainfall based on statistical rainfall pattern, offers robust technical support for mitigating and providing early warnings for urban waterlogging caused by short- duration heavy rainfall.
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