[1]程玉林,刘硕,姚玉健,等.考虑地块汇水不确定性的管网排水可靠性研究[J].中国给水排水,2025,41(3):131-136.
　CHENGYu-lin,LIUShuo,YAOYu-jian,et al.Drainage Reliability of Pipe Network Considering Uncertainty of Plot Catchment[J].China Water & Wastewater,2025,41(3):131-136.
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考虑地块汇水不确定性的管网排水可靠性研究

中国给水排水[ISSN:1000-4062/CN:12-1073/TU] 卷: 第41卷 期数: 2025年第3期 页码: 131-136 栏目: 出版日期: 2025-02-01
Title:
Drainage Reliability of Pipe Network Considering Uncertainty of Plot Catchment
作者:
程玉林， 刘硕， 姚玉健， 韩宏泉， 王通， 方小月， 曹玉鑫
（北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司 水资源与环境院，北京 100082）
Author(s):
CHENG　Yu-lin， LIU　Shuo， YAO　Yu-jian， HAN　Hong-quan， WANG　Tong， FANG　Xiao-yue， CAO　Yu-xin
（Institute of Water Resources and Environment， Beijing General Municipal Engineering Design & Research Institute Co. Ltd.， Beijing 100082， China）
关键词:
排水模型;  参数不确定性;  地块汇水;  可靠度
Keywords:
drainage model;  parameter uncertainty;  plot catchment;  reliability
摘要:
地块实际汇水方向的不确定性和汇水单元划分方法的差异性，导致模型构建时汇水单元面积划分的不准确性，进而影响模型评估结果。通过考虑地块汇水的不确定性，以汇水单元面积为不确定性参数，基于SWMM求解函数库和Monte Carlo随机模拟方法计算了管网和检查井的可靠度。结果表明，相对于确定性工况，考虑地块汇水的不确定性能够识别出潜在的风险检查井，也能够识别出实际风险程度较小的检查井，对模型评价结果影响较大，建议进行模型评估时考虑地块汇水的不确定性。
Abstract:
The ambiguity in determining the actual catchment direction of the plot, coupled with variations in the methodology for dividing catchment units, results in imprecise delineation of catchment unit areas during modeling. This, in turn, compromises the accuracy of the model evaluation outcomes. The SWMM solution library and the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method were employed to evaluate the reliability of the pipe network and manholes by incorporating the uncertainty of plot catchment, with the unit area of catchment serving as the uncertainty parameter. Compared to deterministic conditions, incorporating the uncertainty of plot catchment allowed for the identification of manholes with potential risk, as well as those with lower actual risk. This consideration had a significant impact on model evaluation outcomes. Therefore, it is recommended that the uncertainty of plot catchment be taken into account in the model evaluation.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2025-02-01