[1]李桂章,黄学平,李思源,等.基于秩和比法的内涝风险评估方法研究[J].中国给水排水,2026,42(7):130-136.
　LIGuizhang,HUANGXueping,LISiyuan,et al.Research on Urban Waterlogging Risk Assessment Based on Rank-sum Ratio Method[J].China Water & Wastewater,2026,42(7):130-136.
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基于秩和比法的内涝风险评估方法研究

中国给水排水[ISSN:1000-4062/CN:12-1073/TU] 卷: 第42卷 期数: 2026年第7期 页码: 130-136 栏目: 出版日期: 2026-04-01
Title:
Research on Urban Waterlogging Risk Assessment Based on Rank-sum Ratio Method
作者:
李桂章1， 黄学平2， 李思源2， 熊匡1
（1.江西省人居环境研究院，江西 南昌 330006；2.江西水利电力大学 土木与建筑工程学院，江西 南昌 330029）
Author(s):
LI　Guizhang1， HUANG　Xueping2， LI　Siyuan2， XIONG　Kuang1
（1. Jiangxi Institute of Human Settlements， Nanchang 330006， China； 2. School of Civil and Architectural Engineering， Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power， Nanchang 330029， China）
关键词:
城市内涝防治;  雨洪模型;  秩和比法;  风险评估
Keywords:
urban waterlogging prevention;  stormwater dynamic simulation modeling;  rank-sum ratio method;  risk assessment
摘要:
为提升城市内涝防治的精准决策水平，针对传统风险评估方法在分级阈值界定上缺乏统计理论依据的问题，提出了一种基于秩和比法的内涝风险评估新方法。首先，构建一、二维耦合雨洪模型，模拟内涝过程；然后，基于“危险性-脆弱性”框架构建评估指标体系，并结合层次分析法与熵权法进行主客观综合赋权；最后，引入秩和比法，其核心在于通过概率单位（Probit）将评价结果与标准正态分布相关联，实现基于统计理论的客观、可比的风险分级，克服了传统方法阈值主观、结果不可比的局限。以南昌市红谷滩区为研究案例，结果表明，该方法能有效识别区域风险格局，评估结果中极高、高、中、低、极低风险区面积占比分别为4.09%、9.16%、21.68%、37.21%和27.86%；该方法提供的精确风险排序与具有统计显著性的分级结果，可为防洪排涝工程“分期分步”的优先级排序决策提供直接、量化的科学依据。
Abstract:
To enhance the precision of decision-making in urban waterlogging prevention and control, and to address the lack of statistical theoretical basis for threshold definition in traditional risk assessment methods, this study proposed a novel waterlogging risk assessment method based on the rank-sum ratio (RSR) method. Firstly, a coupled 1D-2D rainfall-runoff model was constructed to simulate the waterlogging process. Next, an evaluation indicator system was established based on the “hazard-vulnerability” framework, and a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method was applied to achieve integrated subjective and objective weighting. Finally, the RSR method was introduced, whose core lay in associating evaluation results with the standard normal distribution through the probability unit (Probit), thereby achieving objective and comparable risk classification based on statistical theory. This approach overcame the limitations of traditional methods, such as subjective thresholds and incomparable results. A case study conducted in the Honggutan District of Nanchang City demonstrated that the proposed method could effectively identify regional risk patterns. The assessment results showed that the proportions of extremely high, high, medium, low, and extremely low-risk areas were 4.09%, 9.16%, 21.68%, 37.21%, and 27.86%, respectively. Notably, the precise risk ranking and statistically significant classification results provided by this method offered direct and quantitative scientific support for prioritizing “phased and step-by-step” decision-making in flood control and drainage projects.

相似文献/References:

[1]唐明,许文斌,尧俊辉,等.基于城市内涝数值模拟的设计暴雨雨型研究[J].中国给水排水,2021,37(5):97.
　TANG Ming,XU Wen-bin,YAO Jun-hui,et al.Design Rainstorm Patterns Based on Numerical Simulation of Urban Flooding[J].China Water & Wastewater,2021,37(7):97.

更新日期/Last Update: 2026-04-01